Episode 100- To have and to hold (aka Second Chance)

[airtommy]

Wow, that door is a perfect match, a great lead!

[Tom]

vor 9 Stunden schrieb airtommy:

Wow, that door is a perfect match, a great lead!

We had another door match in Miami Shores at NE 100 Street but only the door matched there also. So, as they say, this find is unprofitable art 

[Paul Veres]

@Tom, @daytona365 I did my own sketch of the Ballard house, from scratch unbiased by your existing work. Cut out just the relevant scenes from the episode (5 scenes worth 7 minutes) and watched on repeat the whole day studying every frame. In the full version below, I include camera vantage points/view "cones" for some key scenes, which really help determine the angles and what can be seen in them. The other image is just a zoom-in and without cones so the house layout can be seen better. 

I see that I have some discrepancies vs what you did and happy to discuss. I think one main trickery is the delivery guy looking at Sonny and Caroline like he's talking to them as they sit at the table while in fact he couldn't be looking directly at them the way he purports to while walking where he is, let alone bring the crib delivery from that area of the lot. 

I am a bit skeptical of what I ended up with because it paints some quite weird backyard setup and the overall lot shape, but wanted to do this to see if I stumble upon anything new or see things in a different way which could help. This doesn't change our search parameters.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Paul Veres

[Paul Veres]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

We had another door match in Miami Shores at NE 100 Street but only the door matched there also. So, as they say, this find is unprofitable art 

What if this door design is some patented artist work and only one company makes them and they have a list of all properties where such doors were historically installed? I guess one way to find out is to ask the owner of either of the two found houses where they got the door if they know...

[Tom]

vor 11 Stunden schrieb Paul Veres:

@Tom, @daytona365 I did my own sketch of the Ballard house, from scratch unbiased by your existing work. Cut out just the relevant scenes from the episode (5 scenes worth 7 minutes) and watched on repeat the whole day studying every frame. In the full version below, I include camera vantage points/view "cones" for some key scenes, which really help determine the angles and what can be seen in them. The other image is just a zoom-in and without cones so the house layout can be seen better. 

I see that I have some discrepancies vs what you did and happy to discuss. I think one main trickery is the delivery guy looking at Sonny and Caroline like he's talking to them as they sit at the table while in fact he couldn't be looking directly at them the way he purports to while walking where he is, let alone bring the crib delivery from that area of the lot. 

I am a bit skeptical of what I ended up with because it paints some quite weird backyard setup and the overall lot shape, but wanted to do this to see if I stumble upon anything new or see things in a different way which could help. This doesn't change our search parameters.

Interesting version. Thanks!

a few comments though for obvious discrepancies with the TV angles:

the hedges are definite parallel to the house in most parts eg behind the small „finger“ side and the neighbor property, that can be clearly seen on TV. And the chain link fence (with a house they carefully tried to hide as proven by me recently) is very close and not really parallel to the house behind Crockett and Caroline, but much more parallel and closer than in your sketch. 
 

as to the driveway there is lots of dense high vegetation between the street and the entrance (missing on your sketch) which mandates that the driveway is NOT straight to the house, we even can see part of a driveway roughly parallel to the house in front of the entrance what @daytona365 and I deem to be part of a rounded/half ellipsoid driveway. The garage (or access to the pergola) has its own straight driveway right of the house. Part of that can also be seen on TV.

There is not much mystery about the delivery man‘s angle. Daytona365 mounted all his single frames together on an early page of this thread to show the whole stretch of his walk between the house and the fountain (which is completely missing in your sketch) to recreate that part of property correctly. They made it look as the guy used a non existent walkway around the house to get to the garden. So in fact he magically appeared as there is no physical way to get around. Otherwise the angle from Crockett’s/Caroline‘s position to the delivery guy and his background is correct.

Behind the guy is the palm tree bunch the tried to hide next to the small garden shed (which is close to the brick bbc place and the house), then some hedge, behind the hedge some pergola (for car?) on their or the neighbors property with plants on it, then the old stone fountain and then the corner of the property. Anyway that stretch of high hedge/fountain/pergola is much longer than on you sketch. 
 

but the search focus should be on the house shape anyway. As discussed, it seems the house was extended and refurbished shortly before filming (modern floor vents in living room indicate central A/C.

The more eyes look for that house the earlier we find it.

When reduced the 3 objective (fact based, no assumptions) main search criteria are: 

1. 2-story American colonial revival house around 1930s with asymmetrical bay windows, grey roof and a 1-story „extension“ to the west (house facing between south or east)

2. big lot size with lots of non tropical vegetation (hedges, banyan? tree,..) plus old stone fountain in property corner

3. access road with fast car traffic and partly wall behind road in near distance 

Edited August 21, 2022 by Tom

[Tom]

vor 10 Stunden schrieb Paul Veres:

What if this door design is some patented artist work and only one company makes them and they have a list of all properties where such doors were historically installed? I guess one way to find out is to ask the owner of either of the two found houses where they got the door if they know...

We had some similar discussion about unique Art Deco breeze blocks some time ago that turned out to be sold on every corner.

this door is rarely chosen, but not unique. No clue if this garden variety type can be patented at all. Many colonial houses have double doors instead. For me the match is rather a fun fact than a real lead.

[Paul Veres]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting version. Thanks!

a few comments though for obvious discrepancies with the TV angles:

the hedges are definite parallel to the house in most parts eg behind the small „finger“ side and the neighbor property, that can be clearly seen on TV. And the chain link fence (with a house they carefully tried to hide as proven by me recently) is very close and not really parallel to the house behind Crockett and Caroline, but much more parallel and closer than in your sketch. 
 

as to the driveway there is lots of dense high vegetation between the street and the entrance (missing on your sketch) which mandates that the driveway is NOT straight to the house, we even can see part of a driveway roughly parallel to the house in front of the entrance what @daytona365 and I deem to be part of a rounded/half ellipsoid driveway. The garage (or access to the pergola) has its own straight driveway right of the house. Part of that can also be seen on TV.

There is not much mystery about the delivery man‘s angle. Daytona365 mounted all his single frames together on an early page of this thread to show the whole stretch of his walk between the house and the fountain (which is completely missing in your sketch) to recreate that part of property correctly. They made it look as the guy used a non existent walkway around the house to get to the garden. So in fact he magically appeared as there is no physical way to get around. Otherwise the angle from Crockett’s/Caroline‘s position to the delivery guy and his background is correct.

Behind the guy is the palm tree bunch the tried to hide next to the small garden shed (which is close to the brick bbc place and the house), then some hedge, behind the hedge some pergola (for car?) on their or the neighbors property with plants on it, then the old stone fountain and then the corner of the property. Anyway that stretch of high hedge/fountain/pergola is much longer than on you sketch. 
 

but the search focus should be on the house shape anyway. As discussed, it seems the house was extended and refurbished shortly before filming (modern floor vents in living room indicate central A/C.

The more eyes look for that house the earlier we find it.

When reduced the 3 objective (fact based, no assumptions) main search criteria are: 

1. 2-story American colonial revival house around 1930s with asymmetrical bay windows, grey roof and a 1-story „extension“ to the west (house facing between south or east)

2. big lot size with lots of non tropical vegetation (hedges, banyan? tree,..) plus old stone fountain in property corner

3. access road with fast car traffic and partly wall behind road in near distance 

Tom, I wish things were as 'obvious' and 'clearly' to me as they are to you! I revisited the hedges and chainlink fence after putting together a panorama of the backyard and watching everything in motion many times again, results below. I think you say that Daytona365 did that before, but I didn't find such image.

The fountain wasn't missing in my sketch, it's that blue blob. 

By the way I do not have that white building side like you showed in your screenshot, maybe I have the version of the show with cropped sides of the frame.

[Tom]

vor 18 Minuten schrieb Paul Veres:

The fountain wasn't missing in my sketch, it's that blue blob.

By the way I do not have that white building side like you showed in your screenshot, maybe I have the version of the show with cropped sides of the frame

Ok I did not take the blue blob as the fountain. In my opinion that position in your sketch contradicts what we see on TV. There is one camera angle with Crockett and Caroline and the long hedge to the neighbor property behind them. If the fountain and the hedge corner were where you placed it, we would have both in that wide angle shot behind them in plain sight. Thus I still believe Daytona365s sketch is correct placing the fountain on the propert corner next to the house. 
 

i don’t have the neighbor house on screen either. But as shown in the thread CGlide has mysteriously a differently cropped still of that angle and the whitish corner of a house is clearly visible next to the chain fence.

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by Tom

[Paul Veres]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ok I did not take the blue blob as the fountain. In my opinion that position in your sketch contradicts what we see on TV. There is one camera angle with Crockett and Caroline and the long hedge to the neighbor property behind them. If the fountain and the hedge corner were where you placed it, we would have both in that wide angle shot behind them in plain sight. Thus I still believe Daytona365s sketch is correct placing the fountain on the propert corner next to the house. 
 

i don’t have the neighbor house on screen either. But as shown in the thread CGlide has mysteriously a differently cropped still of that angle and the whitish corner of a house is clearly visible next to the chain fence.

 

The wide angle shot showing area behind them is, while wide, still limited to show everything. Look at the panorama I put together from stills. Note the tree behind Ca, and especially the little bush at its base. This bush ties it 99% to the bush in the scene prior - with Will walking. In which the fountain is to the right of the bush, within the same moving shot (and as can be seen in my panorama). After gluing this background together frame by frame, I believe it is one long wall - the one along which Will is walking, which then translates in the later shot above in later scene. The bush at the bottom of the tree is the connection - look at the attached images, these are from different scenes, but it is 99% the same bush.

Of course the panorama can distort the environment as panoramas do. So it is possible that the whole background turns as we go along it. But I don't see in the elements of that background, made continuous in the panorama, where the 90% turn would occur which you have on your sketch around the fountain. It's very not obvious. I think we differ in the assumption of the orientation of the hedge vs the palm bunch next to the shed. You think the hedge comes out of behind it and goes north. I think it starts at the palm bunch and goes west. Unfortunately there is no 100% clarity on that between the frames with Caroline sitting with the shed behind her (to her left side), and Will coming out of nowhere - it could be either. But again I just don't see the background turning 90% later, creating the corner you have behind the fountain, my panorama makes it look improbable.

On the "white house", incredible, I wonder where CGlide got that!

[Tom]

vor 45 Minuten schrieb Paul Veres:

The wide angle shot showing area behind them is, while wide, still limited to show everything. Look at the panorama I put together from stills. Note the tree behind Ca, and especially the little bush at its base. This bush ties it 99% to the bush in the scene prior - with Will walking. In which the fountain is to the right of the bush, within the same moving shot (and as can be seen in my panorama). After gluing this background together frame by frame, I believe it is one long wall - the one along which Will is walking, which then translates in the later shot above in later scene. The bush at the bottom of the tree is the connection - look at the attached images, these are from different scenes, but it is 99% the same bush.

Of course the panorama can distort the environment as panoramas do. So it is possible that the whole background turns as we go along it. But I don't see in the elements of that background, made continuous in the panorama, where the 90% turn would occur which you have on your sketch around the fountain. It's very not obvious. I think we differ in the assumption of the orientation of the hedge vs the palm bunch next to the shed. You think the hedge comes out of behind it and goes north. I think it starts at the palm bunch and goes west. Unfortunately there is no 100% clarity on that between the frames with Caroline sitting with the shed behind her (to her left side), and Will coming out of nowhere - it could be either. But again I just don't see the background turning 90% later, creating the corner you have behind the fountain, my panorama makes it look improbable.

On the "white house", incredible, I wonder where CGlide got that!

The bush looks similar but even in this case the fountain would not be in the middle of the camera frame but still be right out of camera frame in the corner (that is my belief) . I roughly marked in red below the space we see on camera. 

[Tom]

a rare article (May 1988, Don Johnson mentioned) and photo of the stage inside The Carlyle with the mirrors where the piano player was shot in this episode as shown by me last year.

 

[Paul Veres]

@Tom I just wrote to this guy trying to enlist his help for #BallardHouse. As a side note, his speed challenges are insane, but he also cracked some more similar problems, including identifying locations from video, watch enough of his vids and you'll see those.

https://www.instagram.com/georainbolt/

Will keep you posted if he responds. 1.2M followers on Tik Tok and what he does... the guy is probably quite busy. 

[Paul Veres]

Well the magic Google Maps guy from Instagram never got back to me, but I recently had a pleasure of meeting the Deputy Property Appraiser of Miami-Dade county and among other things we spoke about the Appraiser's office interactive property map tool. He is an IT guy by education so he knows all about it. 

I'm now trying to see how I could get my hands on the raw data behind it and possibly figure out how to use its engine to build some sort of a heat map of MD county highlighting only (1) lots with 2-story houses (2) built in 1930s (3) with lots of quarter acre and up. Their system has all the data to apply these 3 filters simultaneously, and possibly visually on a map!

This would reduce our search area for #BallardHouse tremendously so we can approach with renewed vigor on Google Maps/Street View and/or live. Will keep you posted if there is any success with this data project.

[Tom]

vor 37 Minuten schrieb Paul Veres:

Well the magic Google Maps guy from Instagram never got back to me, but I recently had a pleasure of meeting the Deputy Property Appraiser of Miami-Dade county and among other things we spoke about the Appraiser's office interactive property map tool. He is an IT guy by education so he knows all about it. 

I'm now trying to see how I could get my hands on the raw data behind it and possibly figure out how to use its engine to build some sort of a heat map of MD county highlighting only (1) lots with 2-story houses (2) built in 1930s (3) with lots of quarter acre and up. Their system has all the data to apply these 3 filters simultaneously, and possibly visually on a map!

This would reduce our search area for #BallardHouse tremendously so we can approach with renewed vigor on Google Maps/Street View and/or live. Will keep you posted if there is any success with this data project.

Sounds promising. Upon further excluding houses with entrance facing West or north (there was full sunshine on the Ballard house entrance) we should end up with a manageable number of suspects.

[Paul Veres]

#BallardHouse @Tom

2-story, 1931-built, Colonial style, bay windows, on a big lot, near busy Sunset Drive... not our house. No "finger" etc.

But my question is, did they just demolish it? It was already behind an empty lot anyway, with its access coming through that empty lot, and with some new construction coming up additionally on its own lot, but what I see on July 2022 Street View worries me they decided to demolish it. The listing advertised it as "BUILD A NEW MANSION OR MODERN DREAM ESTATE ON THIS 43,124 SF OAK LADEN ACRE"...

Just "sets" a bad precedent in our search if true. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4920-Sunset-Dr-Miami-FL-33143/44225892_zpid/?

Edited October 2, 2022 by Paul Veres

[Tom]

vor 9 Stunden schrieb Paul Veres:

#BallardHouse @Tom

2-story, 1931-built, Colonial style, bay windows, on a big lot, near busy Sunset Drive... not our house. No "finger" etc.

But my question is, did they just demolish it? It was already behind an empty lot anyway, with its access coming through that empty lot, and with some new construction coming up additionally on its own lot, but what I see on July 2022 Street View worries me they decided to demolish it. The listing advertised it as "BUILD A NEW MANSION OR MODERN DREAM ESTATE ON THIS 43,124 SF OAK LADEN ACRE"...

Just "sets" a bad precedent in our search if true. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4920-Sunset-Dr-Miami-FL-33143/44225892_zpid/?

Apart from the fact that these traditional American houses are rarely destroyed &rebuilt intentionally, such a rare case would not be a problem for our search.
 

We have the very sharp 1986 historic satellite aerials of Greater Miami and would find the house from above with our sketch in its original state before it was destroyed. See 1986-example of 4920 Sunset Drive below (which could not be the house in the episode as it is facing north, preventind direct sunshine onto the entrance).
 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Tom

[Paul Veres]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

Apart from the fact that these traditional American houses are rarely destroyed &rebuilt intentionally, such a rare case would not be a problem for our search.
 

We have the very sharp 1986 historic satellite aerials of Greater Miami and would find the house from above with our sketch in its original state before it was destroyed. See 1986-example of 4920 Sunset Drive below (which could not be the house in the episode as it is facing north, preventind direct sunshine onto the entrance).
 

 

Yeah the orientation is different, like I said it's not the house. My point is however rarely they are destroyed intentionally, this is the case in point that they do, I was driving by the lot today and took a picture confirming this similar house was destroyed, within the last year.

So if our house was by some chance also destroyed we can spend infinite time on Google Maps/live and never find it. Then the 1986 historic satellite aerials should be used instead of Google Maps, but it's just so much harder to confirm anything from them, for example you can't readily tell the number of floors or existing bay windows.

We're stuck in between Google Maps where there is non-zero probability it doesn't exist because it was destroyed, and historic aerials where there is 100% probability it exists but we won't be able to claim from these aerials alone we found it, without something like Street View which historic aerials don't provide.

[Tom]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb Paul Veres:

So if our house was by some chance also destroyed we can spend infinite time on Google Maps/live and never find it. Then the 1986 historic satellite aerials should be used instead of Google Maps, but it's just so much harder to confirm anything from them, for example you can't readily tell the number of floors or existing bay windows.

We're stuck in between Google Maps where there is non-zero probability it doesn't exist because it was destroyed, and historic aerials where there is 100% probability it exists but we won't be able to claim from these aerials alone we found it, without something like Street View which historic aerials don't provide.

LOL, welcome to the club! Now you know why this house is such a grind! I´ve been using historic aerials for this house for over a year now for that reason. And for many other locations I found I had to do the same. Zito´s house for example.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Tom

[Tom]

Church of the little Flower in teaser

[miamijimf]

Best Church pics I've seen.  I grew up 3 blocks from there.

[Vicefan7777]

I can see the Spanish influence in the architecture.  Beautiful pics!

[Tom]

Found a new clue that could be a breakthrough in finding the Ballard house.

There seems to be a building behind that big tree in the background, just behind the yellowish wall, approx. 100m from the house. The pattern of the building resembles a grey/white garage. See below. If that is the case, we just eliminated 90+% of all possible locations and have to focus on houses around 100m northwest or northeast (that´s given by the fact that the house front must face east or south or in between due to direct sunlight onto the front) from a garage or similar building with approx. 4-7 stories.

The Miami Children´s hospital in Coral Gables is near other locations in that ep und has a fitting garage on the western side of the compound (see small pic inside the bigger pic below). But no fiitting house northwest of it. But I started to look there and will look at all other similar 5 story buildings near residential neighborhoods.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Tom

[Paul Veres]

@Tom I still think the most realistic "easiest" way is to scan through the county data. Unless it was demolished, but that's a dead end scenario anyway. 

https://gis-mdc.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/MDC::property-boundary-view

Filter like I did below (you can't have the same number at both ends of the spectrum, so I do 2 to 3 floors), and you only need to look at 562 houses! As a sanity check, on the map I circled that Coral Gables 3211 Anderson Rd home you found before. 

As you move along the map, many you won't need to look at because we require a relatively fast frequently traveled road near it, and obviously if there is a large building behind it, you'll be skipping even more. 

I browsed a bit, and haven't found it, but your perseverance with this crown jewel of locations will be stronger than mine. Based on the vibe from all the frames we've pored over for so long, my gut tells me Coral Gables through High Pines and Ponce-David to Pinecrest, but there are a few homes outside of this area also fitting the filtering criteria.

[Tom]

vor 9 Stunden schrieb Paul Veres:

@Tom I still think the most realistic "easiest" way is to scan through the county data. Unless it was demolished, but that's a dead end scenario anyway. 

https://gis-mdc.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/MDC::property-boundary-view

Filter like I did below (you can't have the same number at both ends of the spectrum, so I do 2 to 3 floors), and you only need to look at 562 houses! As a sanity check, on the map I circled that Coral Gables 3211 Anderson Rd home you found before. 

As you move along the map, many you won't need to look at because we require a relatively fast frequently traveled road near it, and obviously if there is a large building behind it, you'll be skipping even more. 

I browsed a bit, and haven't found it, but your perseverance with this crown jewel of locations will be stronger than mine. Based on the vibe from all the frames we've pored over for so long, my gut tells me Coral Gables through High Pines and Ponce-David to Pinecrest, but there are a few homes outside of this area also fitting the filtering criteria.

Thanks. Used that tool once already, but did not find it. Will try again. 

[Tom]

Searched again for all houses but extended year built range from 1930 to 1960. Most of resulting houses (750) rule out due to wrong direction (entrance facing north or west), but I did not find anything.

Important to note is that these filtered type of houses are mainly in Coral Gables, a few in Miami Shores and Miami Beach, but practically none at all in Pinecrest and south or north of the Greenwich studios. I cannot check Broward County with this tool, but due to this tool the mystery house is NOT in Dade County at all. And since we are filtering for the correct built date I have to assume if the house had been razed and rebuilt, then the new built date would disqualify in the search. But as I countrchecked all finds with historic aerials of 1986 I can rule out that the house slipped under our radar.

Mystery remains despite heavy data science IT tool weaponry. SH.T.