Thoughts on Covid 19

[RedDragon86]

In the UK after the 19th wearing face masks optional but on the 18th its important we wear one?

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by RedDragon86

[pahonu]

2 hours ago, Robbie C. said:

Use valid statistics...that's the important part. Verified, valid statistics from multiple sources, not just one source that happens to echo your own political beliefs. 

Absolutely!

 

[pahonu]

2 hours ago, jpaul1 said:

so you're telling me all the french government communications are lies. all french medias are stupid, or bought? the WHO doesn't know its job, and is lying. May i ask you just one question then, where do you get your info, if you don't believe to your government, your country medias, and the most renowned doctors.

This is the fundamental flaw in the rationale of conspiracy theories: finding perceived flaws or even actual gaps in the database, which can and do occur, but then disregarding the preponderance of evidence pointing in one direction to follow minimal or outlying evidence to try and fill in those small gaps.  

One can still see the subject of a puzzle missing a few pieces.  Theorizing about what those missing pieces might show shouldn’t discount what the many other pieces definitively show us.  Is it possible that a single missing piece might completely change the meaning of what we see?  One can’t say never, but it sure isn’t likely…

I always find it fascinating that people follow the science in most things in their life, unless something else tells them not to, be it political, religious, or otherwise.  Most people don’t question the science of quantum physics and nuclear theory because they don’t completely understand it.  It’s complex but we know it has been demonstrated.  Somehow the trust in science and technology is questioned in a handful of areas, but not most.  The same scientific process is at work in all of these areas of study.

[pahonu]

3 hours ago, Robbie C. said:

And there's another corollary you didn't mention...travel. In Montana the counties with the highest case rates in the first part of COVID often had the largest number of out-of-state visitors…

 We're starting to see a jump again as the number of vehicles with license plates from Washington, Oregon, and California increase.

The first part was indeed true, when no vaccination existed and more densely populated areas saw faster transmission, as one would expect mathematically.  Travel from higher to lower density areas would increase transmission rates and it did.

The flaw in the second argument is that all of those states now have higher vaccination rates than Montana does.  The math then points to more localized spreading among the unvaccinated than among visitors arriving who are likely vaccinated.  Indeed, over 99% of current Covid hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals.  Statistically speaking, that is a powerful number.

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by pahonu

[Robbie C.]

58 minutes ago, pahonu said:

The first part was indeed true, when no vaccination existed and more densely populated areas saw faster transmission, as one would expect mathematically.  Travel from higher to lower density areas would increase transmission rates and it did.

The flaw in the second argument is that all of those states now have higher vaccination rates than Montana does.  The math then points to more localized spreading among the unvaccinated than among visitors arriving who are likely vaccinated.  Indeed, over 99% of current Covid hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals.  Statistically speaking, that is a powerful number.

 

Your analysis ignores one important local factor: workers brought in from outside the state to provide services for those "visitors." Many of the big outbreaks early on in Gallatin County were traced back to the Yellowstone Club/Big Sky area, where you have construction workers and others brought in to cater to the wealthy. This was in direct contrast to places like Missoula County where no such wealthy enclave exists. And Yellowstone County isn't really urban or densely populated in the sense you might think. It has the distinction of serving as a hub for many surrounding counties, which did much to increase the number fo cases there. There's usually a secondary level of impact in these situations; one that is not always captured in raw mathematical models for any number of reasons.

[Glades]

The discussion here actually shows quite well what I was talking about. I suspect that no one will convince the other of his position. And that's fine, as long as nobody forces his position on the others!

If everyone is free to go his own way, we can learn from each other. Some things will work better than expected, others less. And so everything develops with time.

Science cannot tell us what to do. Science only gives us information about questions we may or may not have asked. At best, science can give us reliable information.
And we can then decide on the basis of our values how we want to proceed.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Glades

[Robbie C.]

1 minute ago, Glades said:

The discussion here actually shows quite well what I was talking about. I suspect that no one will convince the other of his position. And that's fine, as long as nobody forces his position on the others!

If everyone is free to go his own way, we can learn from each other. Some things will work better than expected, others less. And so everything develops with time.

Science cannot tell us what to do. Science only gives us information about questions we may or may not ask. At best, science can give us reliable information.
And we can then decide on the basis of our values how we want to proceed.

Very true. Science, like everything else, is also limited by what is known at the time. And human considerations about how it is formed, discussed, and advanced.

[Glades]

21 minutes ago, Robbie C. said:

Very true. Science, like everything else, is also limited by what is known at the time. And human considerations about how it is formed, discussed, and advanced

One question that has become increasingly important to me is: How do we want to live? And there is not only one right answer to that.

[Robbie C.]

8 minutes ago, Glades said:

One question that has become increasingly important to me is: How do we want to live? And there is not only one right answer to that.

Very much so. That's always been my question, I guess.

[pahonu]

1 hour ago, Robbie C. said:

Your analysis ignores one important local factor: workers brought in from outside the state to provide services for those "visitors." Many of the big outbreaks early on in Gallatin County were traced back to the Yellowstone Club/Big Sky area, where you have construction workers and others brought in to cater to the wealthy. This was in direct contrast to places like Missoula County where no such wealthy enclave exists. And Yellowstone County isn't really urban or densely populated in the sense you might think. It has the distinction of serving as a hub for many surrounding counties, which did much to increase the number fo cases there. There's usually a secondary level of impact in these situations; one that is not always captured in raw mathematical models for any number of reasons.

Following that logic, the “visitors” arrived with less likelihood of spreading illness, and those who came to work for them caused more illness?  I think this is your point and that may well be very true.  The problem, however, still seems to be with people from less vaccinated locations.  If the workers from elsewhere were vaccinated at equivalent rates as the visitors from the states you named, the statistical argument would be moot, but that’s not the case.  The problem still remains that locations with lower vaccination rates are being more heavily affected now and spreading the illness at a higher rate.

[pahonu]

48 minutes ago, Glades said:

Science cannot tell us what to do. Science only gives us information about questions we may or may not have asked. At best, science can give us reliable information.
And we can then decide on the basis of our values how we want to proceed.

Absolutely true, but my initial point was that many are not using that reliable information to inform their decisions, instead choosing other sources… sources that, quite honestly, are less reliable as it pertains to epidemiology.  Perhaps “values” is a term that can be applied, but applying philosophical ideas to scientific data seems a less than ideal path.

I’ve made this argument here before, but it may bear repeating.  In our our complex world, there is so much expertise in so many areas of knowledge, we can’t hope to understand everything there is to know.  Even with the internet allowing us to investigate so much, we simply cannot gain the expertise or knowledge of professionals who have studied and worked for years or decades, by simply “doing some research”.  

I have two post-graduate degrees and say right now that I don’t understand the nuance and complexity of this pandemic’s spread.  What I do know is that I am going to defer to the experts in the field.  When I see epidemiologist’s citing data showing more than 99% of current COVID hospitalizations are unvaccinated people, that seems to indicate something obvious.  I’m certainly not going to claim I know better somehow.  People who do so are are allowing their ego and their ignorance to prevail.  

I want to clarify that my statements are not directed toward you personally in any way.

[Vicefan7777]

I got back from my visit to Michigan  last night and while visiting my youngest brother and Mom I learned for the first time they both got Covid.  My brother especially was VERY ill.  Once he recovered he told me he he got the Moderna shots.  He never wants to be that sick again.  Mom got it too and despite being 78 she was not as sick.  Go figure. 

 

[jpaul1]

again like pahonu said. this was told by the medias. and accessorily mentioned into that topic. moderna can make you very sick, it was known. I chose Pfizer, got my 2 shots, and i think it's the vaccine that went the best of all the vaccines i got in my life. RNA messenger is basically nothing. it's just (from what i read) a kind of fat bubble carrying a protein, that will trigger your defense system. it doesn't modify the DNA at all, and have 0 chance to do so. all the components are rapidly destroyed by the organism. thus making side effects quite unlikely

[wolfie1996]

8 hours ago, vicegirl85 said:

Wolfie1996, we agree on so many things about Miami Vice, that I am sad we are in opposition on the topic of COVID.  We disagreed before on this topic but I have to speak up once again. 

PCR testing is the gold standard for COVID-19 testing.

99% of those who are being hospitalized with COVID-19 now are UN-vaccinated.

And "hundreds of thousands" of serious adverse vaccine reaction--this is just not true.

Please do feel free not to receive the vaccine yourself.  You live in a free society, as (I think) basically everyone here on the forum does.  I respect your intelligence as well as your right to make your own decision.  But I believe you are getting politically biased misinformation.

 

PCR may be "the gold standard " vicegirl but what I say about it is correct. It is invariably run at 45+ cycles which is well known to give a massive amount of false positives (which is why they use it of  course). 25-27 cycles is more accurate but this is hardly ever used. Kary Mullis who designed it said himself it was useless for the purpose of diagnosis. And sorry to contradict you again but in the UK it certainly isn't true that 99% of hospital admissions are unvaccinated.And the Yellow card system certainly DOES show that many adverse reactions, some as serious as blindness, heart attacks etc. I can't provide the links at present as I have to go out but will certainly look them up. Mind you  I was told on msn comments by someone that deaths had soared  and when I said a freedom of information request (I've seen several) showed very little change in numbers buried or cremated, even going back to 2015, they merely replied that I couldn't have seen that because such info wasn't given out on FOI requests! I had to send proof that I knew the figures (not easy as they don't allow links).............................no answer. Not surprisingly. However I'll certainly see if I can send you some official stats.

No I'm not getting politically biased misinformation for the simple reason that such as the Yelow card system is just a reporting system, not politically connected and also we have NO political Opposition any longer in the UK as the Opposition party happily 100% support everything the goverment in power are doing. Not one person either in the House of Commons or the media gives them any serious challenge or asks questions that should be asked and individuals certainly can't do it. This isn't a satisfactory situation as I'm sure you'll agree.

I agree it's up to the individual what they do  re  vaccination and I think this mandatory idea is extremely dangerous. Don't you? The top of a very  slippery  slope.

 

 

 

[jpaul1]

52 minutes ago, wolfie1996 said:

PCR may be "the gold standard " vicegirl but what I say about it is correct. It is invariably run at 45+ cycles which is well known to give a massive amount of false positives

so all the emergency services suddenly being overwhelmed all around the world is caused by what

[wolfie1996]

13 hours ago, vicegirl85 said:

Wolfie1996, we agree on so many things about Miami Vice, that I am sad we are in opposition on the topic of COVID.  We disagreed before on this topic but I have to speak up once again. 

PCR testing is the gold standard for COVID-19 testing.

99% of those who are being hospitalized with COVID-19 now are UN-vaccinated.

And "hundreds of thousands" of serious adverse vaccine reaction--this is just not true.

Please do feel free not to receive the vaccine yourself.  You live in a free society, as (I think) basically everyone here on the forum does.  I respect your intelligence as well as your right to make your own decision.  But I believe you are getting politically biased misinformation.

 

Your request asked:

Please advise the total number of burials and cremations, annually, broken
down by burials and cremations from January 2015 to December 2020 (or the
last full month of data), in the Leeds City Council jurisdiction.

Please find the information you have requested below:

Year Cremations Burials
2015 5876 1233
2016 5704 1084
2017 5888 1162
2018 5955 1138
2019 5861 1066
2020 6016 1082

I trust that this response is satisfactory. Under Regulation 11, however,
you are entitled to make representations to us if it appears that we have
failed to comply with a requirement of the Regulations in relation to your
request. Representations must be made to us no later than 40 working days
after the date you believe we failed to comply with such a requirement. 

FOI response.

[Ferrariman]

All I can say is there is a lot of misinformation out there.  One of the ones that annoys me the most is people who claim we are being forced to vaccinate. Simply not true. Everyone has the choice to get the shot or not. 

The choice is yours.    One thing I do believe is that the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risk of any side effects.

 

[pahonu]

27 minutes ago, Ferrariman said:

All I can say is there is a lot of misinformation out there.  One of the ones that annoys me the most is people who claim we are being forced to vaccinate. Simply not true. Everyone has the choice to get the shot or not. 

I very much agree.  I think it’s also important to clarify that being required to be vaccinated IF one wants to participate in particular activities or be present in certain circumstances is NOT forced vaccination.  There remains an absolute choice not to vaccinate.  Might it carry with it some limitations? Yes, but it is still an individual’s choice.  These types of choices exist currently in public schools, with some parents choosing home schooling as an alternative to compulsory vaccination.   US case law is surprisingly clear about this:  Jacobson v. Massachusetts.  Compulsory vaccination can be required.  Again, compulsory vaccination is NOT the same as forced vaccination.

Comparing compulsory vaccination to forced sterilization in the past, as was done elsewhere in this thread, is disingenuous and wrong.  Those horrible circumstances presented no such choice.  There is no one coming into homes or hospital rooms today and sticking a needle into people’s arms against their will.  Choosing not to participate in compulsory vaccination is still an option… but it does carry with it limitations.  The court has pretty clearly defined the need to balance individual liberties, which are not absolute, with the public good.

[Eillio Martin Imbasciati]

16 hours ago, RedDragon86 said:

In the UK after the 19th wearing face masks optional but on the 18th its important we wear one?

 

I'm here in the US, and for the time being I'm going to continue wearing a mask indoors. It isn't a problem for me, and my instinct tells me it isn't time yet regardless of vaccination or COVID curve. I think things are still better now than at this point last year; 2020 was a cruel summer, and this year the only Cruel Summer I want to be a part of is when I listen to Bananarama.

[jpaul1]

39 minutes ago, Eillio Martin Imbasciati said:

I'm going to continue wearing a mask indoors

and you're definitely right, as the vaccine even if it drastically lowers your chances to contract a heavy form of the delta variant, there's still a small chance to get ill, and a very small one to get a dangerous form. personnally each time i go to my town center, i put the mask on even outside

[Eillio Martin Imbasciati]

Just now, jpaul1 said:

and you're definitely right, as the vaccine even if it drastically lowers your chances to contract a heavy form of the delta variant, there's still a small chance to get ill, and a very small one to get a dangerous form. personnally each time i go to my town center, i put the mask on even outside

For sure, there's those variants involved. I mean, the mask at least keeps other people safer around me (a librarian I know named Mary says that a big reason she wears a mask is to protect kids).

[pahonu]

1 hour ago, Eillio Martin Imbasciati said:

I'm here in the US, and for the time being I'm going to continue wearing a mask indoors. It isn't a problem for me, and my instinct tells me it isn't time yet regardless of vaccination or COVID curve. I think things are still better now than at this point last year; 2020 was a cruel summer, and this year the only Cruel Summer I want to be a part of is when I listen to Bananarama.

Excellent music reference. 

Sadly, some communities that were not hit as hard last summer are seeing hospitalizations surpass last year because of low vaccination rates.  Here’s a Washington Post article about one part of Missouri experiencing this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/15/springfield-missouri-delta-outbreak/

and another 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/national/a-small-missouri-city-thought-it-had-dodged-the-coronavirus-now-its-hitting-home/2020/07/03/fd1c3778-bc7e-11ea-80b9-40ece9a701dc_story.html%3foutputType=amp

I agree that the US as a whole will likely not return to the circumstances last year.  However, as this article explains, some pockets with low vaccination rates may see worse conditions, especially with the new variants.    

Edited July 17, 2021 by pahonu

[Eillio Martin Imbasciati]

4 minutes ago, pahonu said:

Excellent music reference. 

Sadly, some communities that were not hit as hard last summer are seeing hospitalizations surpass last year because of low vaccination rates.  Here’s a Washington Post article about one part of Missouri experiencing this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/15/springfield-missouri-delta-outbreak/

I agree that the US as a whole will likely not return to the circumstances last year.  However, as this article explains, some pockets with low vaccination rates may see worse conditions, especially with the new variants.    

That is sad, but I think the Humble family mentioned in the article is doing the right thing by being cautious (I think it's a long way from being circumspect to being paranoid/afraid).

[jpaul1]

96% of the french in hospital right now are unvaccinated. 4% are with one dose of vaccine

@wolfie1996i don't get your point. are you trying to say that the claimed deads by covid are lies?

[pahonu]

1 hour ago, jpaul1 said:

96% of the french in hospital right now are unvaccinated. 4% are with one dose of vaccine

@wolfie1996

In US hospitals the number is 99% of deaths and 97% of those hospitalized being unvaccinated.

Edited July 17, 2021 by pahonu