Thoughts on Covid 19

[jpaul1]

so true Ferrariman. i wonder how many lives could have been spared for each post arguing. really curious about this. the only way Glades is herd immunity, and only way to achieve this is the vaccine

Edited August 15, 2021 by jpaul1

[Glades]

32 minutes ago, Ferrariman said:

The end of all Corona rules would bring about the true definition of herd immunity and God knows how many millions would have to die to achieve it! 

I'm sorry, I have expressed myself in a misleading way. I don't mean that all rules should be stopped right now, no matter what the situation is.

But what situation would have to be reached in order to do that safely? Under which circumstances would it be safe to stop the Corona rules as I listed above? Of course, people could continue to take certain precautions after that, which seem reasonable to them.

Edited August 15, 2021 by Glades

[Christine]

I don't think we can avoid recurrent booster shots, and maybe someday there will be vaccines like those for mumps, measles and rubella given to young children to protect them. But I could also well imagine that our children's immune systems will learn to cope with the Corona virus. Humans are very adaptable, but no one can estimate how many people will have to die before these things are achieved.
In any case, Germany wants to try everything to avoid a fourth lockdown or having to close schools.

[Ferrariman]

3 hours ago, Glades said:

I'm sorry, I have expressed myself in a misleading way. I don't mean that all rules should be stopped right now, no matter what the situation is.

But what situation would have to be reached in order to do that safely? Under which circumstances would it be safe to stop the Corona rules as I listed above? Of course, people could continue to take certain precautions after that, which seem reasonable to them.

I wasn’t 100% sure what you meant but I’ve got it now.  

[timm525]

Sadly as with any plague, the strong will survive and the weak will die. Our hospitals here in Florida are surging with Covid patients needing serious medial help. Contrary to popular belief just because you test positive it doesn’t mean you need to be hospitalized and get on a ventilator in ICU. Quite the contrary, most are sent home to self isolate and quarantine unless they are in need of life saving measures. It is those folks, the ones that truly need life saving measures, that are currently filling our ICUs and causing us to open other wings dedicated to patients with Covid. 

Some of you that have know me for a long time know I work in a hospital and am in Facilities Management. That means I am responsible for taking care of the physical building as well as all the utilities. Those utilities also include the medical gas and oxygen for the hospital. 

One thing all these ventilators need is O2….and a lot of it. You don’t need to be a mechanical engineer to figure out that there is a mathematical equation of pipe diameter, length of run, and pressure which ends up suppling O2 to the patient rooms. That system was designed at the time it was built with current volumes and reasonable expectations of additional growth at that time (some of our facilities have wings that are over 30 years old, long before any of this was ever thought of). Needless to say Covid needs have surpassed all of that at most of our sister facilities. 

At the previous campus within our system that I worked at up until a few months ago (I transferred to one closer to home and for a promotion) my former boss has been talking with me every day since Friday as to what can he do to get more O2 either out of the main system or into the main line?  I have a lot more experience then he does on this kinda thing and have been giving him some alternatives to try. One of his facilities is at capacity and his O2 alarm panels are….well….alarming…as in low alarming.  That is caused from too much demand. Anyway, we did a work around and he’s fine for now and my new to me campus is ok too, for now, but there is a domino effect that starts to happen on the facility and it’s infrastructure when things go above and beyond what they were designed for.

All I can say with certainty is that in the very near future NFPA (National Fire Protection Agency - major hospital regulatory body of codes and requirements), AHCA - Agency for Health Care Administration (State of Florida accreditation body for all hospitals and nursing homes in the state of Florida- they hold your state license) and of course TJC (The Joint Commission- the Federal Government that accredits your facility to get reimbursed from Medicare and Medicade. As well as a few others will definitely be re-writing a whole new set of codes that hospitals will need to comply with going forward specifically for Covid. I can foresee whole wings or units being able to be switched to negative pressure. Ooodles more O2 outlets and larger pipe sizing for each room and wings. Additional emergency connection points for portable tanks to hook up to to back feed the line for additional O2…..you get the point…. Change is coming, no doubt in my mind on that one. 

Good luck and stay safe. And BTW, for what it’s worth, no matter how you feel on the get vaccinated or don’t get vaccinated front, the majority of the patients we have with Covid in house needing serious medical treatment are currently the unvaccinated. I’ll leave it at that. Let your conscience be your guide. Make your own decisions and be prepared to live with it either way you choose. 

[Eillio Martin Imbasciati]

On 8/14/2021 at 12:28 PM, vicegirl85 said:

Agree!  It seems there are some cases (like airlines) where people are asked to show proof of vaccination or negative COVID-19 test before being permitted to enter.  But unless all park entrances are patrolled and people are checking, I think it will work about as effectively as saying unvaccinated people should still wear masks.

In my  state, the governor and state board of education announced Tuesday that all schoolchildren and staff must wear masks while in school.  Naturally, a group of parents protesting this invasion of parental rights and liberty staged a protest 2 days later.

At the Sawgrass Marriott in Ponte Vedra that I work at, beginning August 9th everyone had to begin wearing masks again, no exceptions. There's a letter of notification on the security booth and the entryway reporting a recent COVID breakout in the community there. For me it didn't matter, since I've worn a mask every day since the job began in May, but I think it illustrates the need to remain vigilant in this matter.

[vicegirl85]

On 8/15/2021 at 10:45 AM, Glades said:

@pahonu , can you imagine a scenario that would lead to the termination of all Corona rules worldwide and permanently (i.e. for more than a few months and more than in a few countries)? What would be neccessary? I would be really interested to know.

By Corona rules I mean mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, testing for SARS-Cov2 in asymptomatic people, access to certain areas of the public only for vaccinated people or people with negative test results, business and school closures, banning of large events, border closures.

Are there any rules that you consider indispensable in the next few years?

I actually fear it's too late for society around the world to achieve herd immunity from vaccination, due to the number of countries that haven't yet received sufficient supplies of vaccine, as well as regions that are in turmoil due to war or natural disasters, where the logistics of vaccinating large numbers of the population are so challenging.  If it possibly occurred that 80% of eligible people around the world were vaccinated within the next couple of months, we could probably see relaxation of all Covid restrictions as the pool of vulnerable people would be so small that circulation would slow to a trickle.  However, that 80% would have to happen very soon (may already be too late) due to the chance of mutations that aren't susceptible to the virus.  So far, the known mutations have been susceptible, so it's still worthwhile to push for more people to get vaccinated.

Lou, you are right that if all rules were relaxed now we might achieve herd immunity by the result that many more infected people would get sick and die, ultimately leaving a smaller "herd" of immunized people who survive. 

I know you're not one of the people who is calling for herd immunity through disease   The people who push "herd immunity" as a result of having the disease seem to forget that no matter how many people became ill from smallpox, polio, measles, diptheria, etc., society as a whole did not achieve herd immunity and many people died or were permanently disabled from the disease they survived.  Vaccination is the thing that led to those diseases being eliminated, or nearly so.

[Christine]

One point is that we will never get everyone to get vaccinated. I read the discussions about vaccination yes or no every day and just shake my head at the sometimes nonsensical arguments of the opponents of vaccination.
The second point is that there will always be new mutations, because to mutate is now virus type.
Something that should not be ignored, however, is that although the numbers are rising again, fewer people are being treated in hospitals and of those, in turn, hardly any patients need ventilation. The course of the disease is much milder than it was before the vaccinations. 
I am very curious to see how things will develop over the fall and winter.

 

[jpaul1]

according to a high level specialist here, we're in for at least until 2023. with a very high probability of at least another variant. i don't remember exactly but he was a kind of french Fauci. a high responsability specialist. the unvaccinated 'prob' will solve by itself. or they get vaccinated, or they'll spend a nighmare moment in ICU, and if they manage to escape the reaper, they'll spend a so bad time there that they'll ask for the vaccine. And we'll finally get a vaccinated pool that will allow us to stop the vaccine mutations, and finally end all this. i'm just telling facts. All the unvaccinated delta ill that ended in ICU here, and survived, are begging for the vaccine. they all say, my God, if i had knew. I had been so stupid, now i want the vaccine

Edited August 17, 2021 by jpaul1

[Ferrariman]

Anyone remember the old movie  "The Andromeda Strain"?  Was just thinking about it the other day.  There was a very similar situation with a deadly virus. The end result was that the virus eventually mutated into a harmless form.  True science fiction I guess.

[Eillio Martin Imbasciati]

2 minutes ago, Ferrariman said:

Anyone remember the old movie  "The Andromeda Strain"?  Was just thinking about it the other day.  There was a very similar situation with a deadly virus. The end result was that the virus eventually mutated into a harmless form.  True science fiction I guess.

Hey, I really like that reference Ferrariman! I don't know if that will happen, but we can hope. Also, I know it's just a book/film, but I feel that Michael Crichton was a pretty forward thinker who was inventing concepts when they hadn't actually been invented yet, but would be (okay, so the dinosaur thing likely won't happen again, but I think he was right on with economics & the growth of technology).

[Christine]

vor 14 Stunden schrieb Eillio Martin Imbasciati:

okay, so the dinosaur thing likely won't happen again

But let's hope that this fiction does not become reality.

[jpaul1]

Pressley Stutts. vivid anti vaxxer, and anti mask mandate. here are a couple of his last posts (the man is no more)

 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by jpaul1

[Ferrariman]

Seems pretty obvious that prayer isn’t the answer.

[miamijimf]

15 minutes ago, Ferrariman said:

Seems pretty obvious that prayer isn’t the answer.

Yes, the Bible says, "God helps those who help themselves."

 

[Dadrian]

4 hours ago, miamijimf said:

Yes, the Bible says, "God helps those who help themselves."

 

Amen, Jim! 

Here’s the lesson: 

https://truthbook.com/stories/funny-god/the-drowning-man

[Christine]

And even though many unvaccinated people have to fight for their lives this way and it is discribed what Covid can do to you, if you´re unvaccinated, lots of people deny the vaccination.
I conducted a consultation visit last week with a family with a severely disabled child, i.e., a high-risk patient. The mother told me that she denies the vaccination because she don´t know what can happen to her in some weeks or months because of the active ingredient.
I tried to explain to her how a vaccination works, but unfortunately I couldn´t convince her. She said, that she is not only the mother of this disabled child but mother of another not so severely disabled child and she couldn´t afford getting sick for two or three days.
I stopped trying to explain how important the vaccination would be for someone like her, but sometimes I think people like her should read more about the experiences of Covid patients.

[Ferrariman]

2 hours ago, Christine said:

And even though many unvaccinated people have to fight for their lives this way and it is discribed what Covid can do to you, if you´re unvaccinated, lots of people deny the vaccination.
I conducted a consultation visit last week with a family with a severely disabled child, i.e., a high-risk patient. The mother told me that she denies the vaccination because she don´t know what can happen to her in some weeks or months because of the active ingredient.
I tried to explain to her how a vaccination works, but unfortunately I couldn´t convince her. She said, that she is not only the mother of this disabled child but mother of another not so severely disabled child and she couldn´t afford getting sick for two or three days.
I stopped trying to explain how important the vaccination would be for someone like her, but sometimes I think people like her should read more about the experiences of Covid patients.

This mother doesn't realize that getting sick for 2 or 3 days is a picnic compared to what she'll experience if she gets Covid.  If she survives!  Then what happens to her children?  I still can't wrap my head around people who don't understand how this works.   How many more stories of people who said they should've been vaccinated do we need to hear? 

Sorry to hear this Christine. I know how frustrated you must've been, but as you said (and like my misinformed neighbors) you just have to eventually realize that nothing will get through to them and just let it be.  

[fakespyder]

We're into two months of lockdown. Maybe a bit shorter/longer. I've lost track of days.

More protests over the weekend so I fully expect another rise in the infection numbers in the coming weeks.

The whole thing keeps repeating like some sick joke.

[Ferrariman]

19 minutes ago, fakespyder said:

The whole thing keeps repeating like some sick joke.

I’ve said this numerous times. We lockdown, the numbers go down, we start to open up the numbers go up. How many times have we done this now?! The U. S. Is in it’s 4th wave.  4th!  It’s the classic definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When are we going to learn?!

[Robbie C.]

We lockdown, ODs start to spike, domestic abuse rates climb, businesses fail, mental health ends up in the toilet. But those are all costs people seem to think you can blow off or deny.

There are two sides (at least) to everything. Lockdowns aren't a real answer, but they make some people feel like they're doing something. Obviously no one's going to learn from that, either.

Viruses mutate. It's what they do. And now they're using breakthrough infections as an excuse to justify yet more lockdowns. You want a solution? Try refusing treatment for any condition to people who haven't been vaccinated. Come up with testing that doesn't involve jamming stuff up peoples' noses every other day even if they're vaccinated. Develop medications that ease symptoms. And actually address the other impacts this is having on peoples' lives. I fully expect this post to be answered by yet another wall of data (suspect or otherwise), but data is just a screen or a crutch for the impact this is having on real people. People who've been vaccinated but still are treated like they're disease-bearing scum. People who see their dreams, their dreams for their children, and in some cases their own sobriety or sanity being stripped away in the name of some lockdown illusion or fantasy safety pushed by people who ignore precautions themselves because they're in positions of wealth or power (or both) and can do as they will.

[fakespyder]

Ferrariman Robbie C.

I don't disagree with either of your points. I certainly did not mean to imply lockdowns are an answer. Lockdowns are crude and soul destroying for many people and put many others at risk from family members.

 

 

[pahonu]

3 hours ago, Robbie C. said:

We lockdown, ODs start to spike, domestic abuse rates climb, businesses fail, mental health ends up in the toilet. But those are all costs people seem to think you can blow off or deny.

There are two sides (at least) to everything. Lockdowns aren't a real answer, but they make some people feel like they're doing something. Obviously no one's going to learn from that, either.

Viruses mutate. It's what they do. And now they're using breakthrough infections as an excuse to justify yet more lockdowns. You want a solution? Try refusing treatment for any condition to people who haven't been vaccinated. Come up with testing that doesn't involve jamming stuff up peoples' noses every other day even if they're vaccinated. Develop medications that ease symptoms. And actually address the other impacts this is having on peoples' lives. I fully expect this post to be answered by yet another wall of data (suspect or otherwise), but data is just a screen or a crutch for the impact this is having on real people. People who've been vaccinated but still are treated like they're disease-bearing scum. People who see their dreams, their dreams for their children, and in some cases their own sobriety or sanity being stripped away in the name of some lockdown illusion or fantasy safety pushed by people who ignore precautions themselves because they're in positions of wealth or power (or both) and can do as they will.

Viruses do indeed mutate, but they mutate as they spread.  If the spread is slowed, the mutation rate is also slowed.  This fourth surge in the US is almost entirely of the Delta variant and would have very likely been minimized with higher vaccination rates.  I believe what we are beginning to see now is the frustration and anger among the people who made the decision to vaccinate and help themselves and others by doing so.  They see the decisions by others not to do so as selfish and put colloquially, not being a team player.  This is reflected in many people’s comments now.

All the consequences you describe are real and I see many of them personally with my students.  I also have had more students attend funerals for family members in this pandemic than in the previous 25 years of my career.  We haven’t had anything recently like the first lockdown in March of 2020 here in California, and I don’t think that is necessary now given the vaccine’s existence.  I also don’t think that’s what most people are calling for here.

It’s not an all or nothing proposition, lockdown or wide open.  I think too many think of it in those binary terms.  That kind of oversimplification really hinders the kind of compromise solutions that could be very effective. Higher vaccination rates and more widespread mask-wearing could have a very significant effect, no lockdown necessary.  Unfortunately enough individuals aren’t doing these things and new surges continue.  Consequently we hear the call for new lockdowns from some out of shear frustration. 

Edited August 23, 2021 by pahonu

[jpaul1]

as we speak lockdowns exist only because of people refusing the vaccine. This is why in France we chose the sanitary pass. to force people to get the vaccine

also something i found on the net

[Christine]

vor 11 Stunden schrieb Robbie C.:

We lockdown, ODs start to spike, domestic abuse rates climb, businesses fail, mental health ends up in the toilet. But those are all costs people seem to think you can blow off or deny.

There are two sides (at least) to everything. Lockdowns aren't a real answer, but they make some people feel like they're doing something. Obviously no one's going to learn from that, either.

Viruses mutate. It's what they do. And now they're using breakthrough infections as an excuse to justify yet more lockdowns. You want a solution? Try refusing treatment for any condition to people who haven't been vaccinated. Come up with testing that doesn't involve jamming stuff up peoples' noses every other day even if they're vaccinated. Develop medications that ease symptoms. And actually address the other impacts this is having on peoples' lives. I fully expect this post to be answered by yet another wall of data (suspect or otherwise), but data is just a screen or a crutch for the impact this is having on real people. People who've been vaccinated but still are treated like they're disease-bearing scum. People who see their dreams, their dreams for their children, and in some cases their own sobriety or sanity being stripped away in the name of some lockdown illusion or fantasy safety pushed by people who ignore precautions themselves because they're in positions of wealth or power (or both) and can do as they will.

I absolutely agree with you on a lot of this, Robbie. I also think that there should be an end to this banter about vaccinations. Those who really can not get them for health reasons (and that should not be soooo many), of course, all medical costs should continue to be covered by health insurance. Who has no compelling medical reasons, all costs for possible treatments by a Covid - disease are to carry themselves.
Unfortunately, it is not as simple as that, because all those who oppose vaccination then cry out for the Basic Law and demand equal treatment with the vaccinated on the basis of it.
There is no lockdown in our country at the moment and there should not be one, but let's wait and see. In September, the federal elections will take place. Germany gets a new chancellor or a chancellor. Until that's over, everyone will try everything to keep the population in line. What happens after that ...? We will see.
In any case, the numbers are rising again, because many people had to fly on vacation. I have seen pictures about acquaintances, where the vacationers lie again like sardines in the can on the beach. Of course without masks. They were only worn where it was mandatory.
Now everyone will complain and whine again when the numbers continue to rise and we also possibly go into a lockdown again after the elections.

As for the other things you brought up: The dreams of many people worldwide are going down the drain in these times. Long-established businesses are closing, some that had just opened may have just survived the first lockdown that followed, but would not survive another. 
These are really bad times and people just don't learn.